Five Long-Terms of Economic Acceleration

 

The economic acceleration and improving business...

environment are underpinned by five long-term trends, each of which is unlocking transformative growth in key economic sectors.

1. A population that is fast growing and urbanizing

Africa’s current population of around 1.2 billion people is projected to reach 1.7 billion by 2030. 

More than 80 percent of Africa’s population growth over the next few decades will occur in cities, making it the fastest-urbanizing region in the world. 

At the same time, incomes are rising across much of the continent, generating new business opportunities in the consumer market. 

In total, we expect annual spending by African consumers and businesses to reach $6.66 trillion by 2030, up from $4 trillion in 2015. These trends are spurring growing markets in a range of sectors where Africans have unmet needs, including food, beverages, pharmaceuticals, financial services, healthcare, and education.

2. Africa is industrializing

An African industrial revolution is underway as manufacturers ramp up production of everything from processed food to automobiles. 

We calculate that African industries have the opportunity to double production to nearly $1 trillion within a decade. Three-quarters of that growth is likely to come from manufacturing to substitute imports and meet burgeoning local demand. 

But there is also an important opportunity to grow manufacturing exports and make Africa the world’s next great manufacturing center as industries shift away from China to lower-cost regions. 

The ongoing revolution among industries without smokestacks, such as tourism, agro-industry, and some information and communications technology based services, can serve as a development escalator as these industries share three key characteristics of traditional manufacturing—exportability, higher productivity, and high labor intensity.

3. Africa is pushing to close its infrastructure gap

Poor infrastructure is one of the key impediments to investment and growth in Africa. For example, nearly 600 million Africans lack access to the electricity grid. 

But while Africa’s infrastructure still lags behind that of other developing regions, significant progress has been made: Africa’s annual investment in infrastructure has doubled to around $80 billion a year since the beginning of this century. 

That represents a big opportunity for investors and entrepreneurs with the imagination to help solve Africa’s infrastructure challenges.

4. Innovations to unleash agricultural and resource wealth

Africa has long been known for its resource abundance in both agriculture and mineral resources. To date, though, Africa has struggled to translate these resources into shared wealth and sustained economic development. 

New innovations and investments promise to change that picture and create exciting growth opportunities for business. For example, in oil and gas, Africa is rich in unexplored, high-potential regions, and the continent has huge unmet demand for energy. 

We estimate that the domestic gas market in Africa will grow by 9 percent a year to 2025, by which time the continent could use up to 70 percent of its own gas.

5. The potential of increasing digital and mobile access

Sub-Saharan Africa saw the world’s fastest rate of new broadband connections between 2008 and 2015, and mobile data traffic across Africa is expected to increase sevenfold between 2017 and 2022. 

Africa has more than 120 million active mobile money accounts, over 50 percent of the global total; this has leapfrogged many people over traditional banking products. 

This trend will allow companies to improve productivity, speed up transactions, and access wider markets, and could add $300 billion to the continent’s GDP by 2025.